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太阳活动与行星相位关联性的统计研究

Statistical Study of Solar Activity and Planetary Phase Associations

  • 摘要: 基于约151 yr黑子群与约42 yr耀斑观测, 构建太阳活动与行星日心黄经的相位统计框架. 按事件位置与单颗行星的黄经差定义合相(0^\circ)与冲相(180^\circ), 不同于天体间合冲. 为降低观测与采样伪影, 排除地球; 以循环时序平移检验(Cyclic Time-Shift, CTS)为零分布基准, 辅以错误发现率(False Discovery Rate, FDR)校正、块级自举与假行星零检验评估显著性与稳健性. 结果显示C级耀斑在合相方向单边增强: 在半宽2^\circ的代表性窗口下, 合相比为109.6\% (基线100\%, 未校正概率p_\rmraw = 0.001, 50个窗口内经FDR校正后q = 0.023), 冲相趋于基线. 单行星中金星最强, 经7颗行星的多重比较校正后仍显著, 但跨周期看该效应在第24太阳活动周中最强; 全相位呈近合相单峰, 与线性潮汐预期不符. 黑子群未检出同型增强, 或因每日采样与日面自转稀释了瞬态信号. 多体组合未稳定超过最强单行星. 结果支持受限统计关联, 物理机制有待更长周期与独立数据检验.

     

    Abstract: Based on about 151 years of sunspot-group observations and about 42 years of flare observations, a phase-statistical framework is constructed to test event distributions in the conjunction (\Delta\lambda=0^\circ) and opposition (\Delta\lambda=180^\circ) directions, defined by the event-planet heliocentric longitude difference rather than by inter-body alignments. To reduce observational-geometry and orbital-sampling artefacts, Earth is excluded; Cyclic Time-Shift (CTS) tests serve as the null-distribution baseline, supplemented by the false discovery rate (FDR) correction, residence-time normalization, block bootstrap, and fake-planet null tests to assess significance and robustness. The results show a one-sided conjunction enhancement for C-class flares: at the representative window half-width of 2^\circ, the conjunction ratio R_\rmC = 109.6\% (baseline 100\%; uncorrected probability p_\rmraw = 0.001; FDR q = 0.023 within the same 50-window scan family), while the opposition direction stays near the baseline. In the single-planet analysis, Venus gives the strongest signal and remains significant after correction across the seven single-planet comparisons, but cross-cycle segmentation shows that this effect is strongest in Solar Cycle 24. The full phase distribution is near-conjunction unimodal, inconsistent with the linear tidal model. No analogous robust enhancement is detected for sunspot groups as a whole, suggesting that daily sampling and solar rotation may dilute transient directional signals. Multi-planet combinations do not show a stable excess over the strongest single planet. These results support a bounded statistical association, and the underlying physical mechanism requires longer solar-cycle coverage and independent validation.

     

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