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地球共振回归与非共振回归小行星轨道特性分析

Analysis of Orbital Characteristics of Earth Resonant Returning and Non-resonant Returning Asteroids

  • 摘要: 近地小行星在长期动力学演化过程中可频繁与地球发生密近交会, 对地球安全构成潜在威胁. 根据其与地球的轨道共振关系, 可将在轨道演化中与地球多次交会的小行星分为两类: 地球共振回归小行星与地球非共振回归小行星. 这两类小行星轨道附近可存在动力学敏感的引力锁眼, 从而为利用微弱扰动实施行星防御提供了一种低成本动力学操控方案. 为深入了解这两类小行星的轨道特性, 基于近地小行星无偏轨道分布模型NEOMOD 3 (Orbital Distribution Model 3 for Near-Earth Objects), 针对尺寸大于10 m的虚拟小行星进行了为期100 yr的高精度轨道外推, 记录了此期间内发生的所有距离小于0.01 au的近地交会事件. 基于这些数据, 揭示了每年近地交会事件发生频次与交会距离的幂律关系, 并发现与地球交会的小行星数目随交会次数增加呈现近似幂律衰减特征. 此外, 对轨道根数与交会速度的统计分析表明, 这些参数的分布均与交会次数显著相关, 且共振与非共振回归小行星的轨道分布存在差异. 分析表明, 这些差异源于交会次数与交会模式对近地小行星轨道的一种“选择效应”. 计算结果表明, 对于一次随机的近地交会事件, 其所对应的小行星在本次交会前100 yr、50 yr及20 yr内曾与地球发生交会的概率分别约为13.7%、2.98%和0.37%. 本工作可为行星防御中的目标动力学特性研究及低成本防御任务设计提供重要的理论与数据支撑.

     

    Abstract: During the long-term dynamical evolution, near-Earth asteroids can frequently undergo close encounters with Earth, posing potential threats to Earth’s safety. Based on their orbital resonance relationships with Earth, asteroids that experience multiple encounters during their orbital evolution can be classified into two categories: Earth-resonant returning asteroids and Earth non-resonant returning asteroids. Dynamically sensitive gravitational keyholes may exist near the orbits of these two types of asteroids, thereby offering a low-cost deflection strategy for planetary defense by utilizing weak perturbations. To gain a deeper understanding of the orbital characteristics of these two types of asteroids, a 100-year high-precision orbital integration was performed for virtual asteroids larger than 10 meters in size, based on the debiased orbit model for near-Earth asteroids, NEOMOD 3. All near-Earth encounter events less than 0.01 au occurring during this period were recorded. Based on these data, a power-law relationship between the annual frequency of near-Earth encounter events and the encounter distance was revealed, and it was found that the number of asteroids encountering Earth exhibits an approximate power-law decay characteristic with increasing encounter number. Furthermore, statistical analysis of orbital elements and encounter velocities indicates that the distributions of these parameters are significantly correlated with the number of encounters, and there are differences in the orbital distributions between resonant and non-resonant returning asteroids. Analysis shows that these differences stem from a “selection effect” of encounter frequency and encounter patterns on the orbits of near-Earth asteroids. The calculation results indicate that for a random near-Earth close-approach event, the probability that the corresponding asteroid had previously encountered Earth within 100 years, 50 years, and 20 years before the current event is approximately 13.7%, 2.98%, and 0.37%, respectively. This work can provide important theoretical and data support for research on dynamical characteristics of target asteroids in planetary defense and the design of low-cost defense missions.

     

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